Venture Returns Calculator

Venture math is unintuitive because it is dominated by one number. Move the sliders and watch how little the rest of the portfolio matters.

Fund size$100M

$3M average per company

Companies30

Ownership at exit8%

After every round of dilution

Failure rate50%

15 of 30 return nothing

Typical exit$75M

What each of the 14 survivors sells for

Best company's exit$2.00B

Fund returns2.4×$244M back on $100M

From one company66%of everything the fund returns

To hit 3×$2.70Bthe winner has to sell for this

Where the money comes from

Target multiple3×

The bar the fund is trying to clear

What this model ignores

Management fees and carry. Every number here is gross, so a real fund needs to clear a higher bar than the one shown.
Reserves. Capital is split evenly across companies rather than concentrated into the ones that work, which is the opposite of what good funds do.
Time. A 3× over six years and a 3× over twelve are very different funds, and IRR would separate them.
Shape. Real portfolios have a smear of outcomes, not one winner and a pile of identical survivors.